Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
